Every week has a close.

Six markets, two settlement bells. Crypto settles Sunday at the weekly candle close; stocks and indexes settle Friday with the bell. Sculpt the whole distribution — not just up or down.

Distribution shapes are simulated LMSR order flow; settlement tracks real weekly closes (S&P 500 & Nasdaq-100 via SPY/QQQ proxies).

BTC weekly — liveBASE SEPOLIA

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Last week's closes

Consensus was right in 1/6 markets
BTCSURPRISE
$78k
settled in > $74k
NVDASURPRISE
$214.72
settled in $212.50–$215
TSLASURPRISE
$362.86
settled in $360–$365
AAPLSURPRISE
$309.35
settled in $308–$310
SPXCONSENSUS
7,657
settled in 7,650–7,700
NDXSURPRISE
29,536
settled in 29,400–29,600

Friday close

4:00 PM ETstocks + indexes
NVDA · WEEKLY1d 8h 50m
Where does NVIDIA close this week?
64% says $210–$222.50 · 36% bets on a surprise
Settles Fri, Aug 28 · 4:00 PM ET · Vol $180k
Sculpt yours →
TSLA · WEEKLY1d 8h 50m
Where does Tesla close this week?
60% says $370–$420 · 40% bets on a surprise
Settles Fri, Aug 28 · 4:00 PM ET · Vol $15k
Sculpt yours →
AAPL · WEEKLY1d 8h 50m
Where does Apple close this week?
61% says $300–$320 · 39% bets on a surprise
Settles Fri, Aug 28 · 4:00 PM ET · Vol $11k
Sculpt yours →
SPX · WEEKLY1d 8h 50m
Where does S&P 500 close this week?
62% says 7,450–7,850 · 38% bets on a surprise
Settles Fri, Aug 28 · 4:00 PM ET · Vol $27k
Sculpt yours →
NDX · WEEKLY1d 8h 50m
Where does Nasdaq-100 close this week?
61% says 28,000–29,400 · 39% bets on a surprise
Settles Fri, Aug 28 · 4:00 PM ET · Vol $34k
Sculpt yours →

Sunday close

23:59 UTCthe weekly candle everyone argues about
BTC · WEEKLY3d 12h 50m
Where does Bitcoin close this week?
62% says $69k–$79k · 38% bets on a surprise
Settles Sun, Aug 30 · 23:59 UTC · Vol $24k
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Whose distributions actually land? The leaderboard scores every forecast against settled closes with CRPS — a proper scoring rule you can't farm with volume.

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