● Distribution Markets · Built on Base

Predict what happens.
Draw exactly how.

Not yes or no — a full probability curve. The world's first distribution prediction market, where your belief has infinite resolution.

Trade live on testnet →Try the demoHow it works
Live market · Bitcoin this week's close · $2.4M volume
← outcome range →
$4.8M
24h Volume
Across all markets
12,441
Active traders
Right now
847
Open markets
Crypto, equities, indices
∞
Outcome resolution
Full distribution, not binary
Illustrative figures for demonstration — VibeKast is pre-launch.
See who's actually calibrated — live leaderboard →
The core mechanic

You draw. The crowd draws. The market emerges.

✏️
Draw your belief
Drag a probability curve across the full outcome range. Set your peak, your confidence, your tails. Express exactly what you believe — not just a direction.
← outcome range →
👥
Crowd distributions
Every trader submits a full distribution. The AMM aggregates them in real time. The result is a richer signal than any binary market can produce.
← crowd of distributions →
⚡
Leverage without borrowing
Sharper distributions mean cheaper winning shares and bigger multiples — the amplification is built into the shape. Max loss is what you paid. No liquidations, no funding.
← higher conviction = sharper curve = bigger payout →
Live markets

Crowd medians, right now.

BTC wk close
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NVDA wk close
$188
Nasdaq-100
22,850
TSLA wk close
$342
BTC wk close
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NVDA wk close
$188
Nasdaq-100
22,850
TSLA wk close
$342
BTC wk close
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NVDA wk close
$188
Nasdaq-100
22,850
TSLA wk close
$342
Always liquid

Automated market makers.
Trade instantly, always.

No counterparty needed. An LMSR market maker quotes every outcome at every moment, with worst-case loss bounded by construction — always instant, always deep.

For market makers

We built the bot so you don't have to.

A reference market-making agent that quotes against the LMSR AMM out of the box. Fund the liquidity depth, tune spread and inventory skew, and it manages risk automatically. Your downside is bounded by design.

🤖
Turnkey agent
No need to build a distribution market-making bot on spec. Point our reference agent at a market, fund it, tune a few parameters — it quotes and manages inventory for you.
🛡️
Bounded downside
LMSR caps the maximum loss at b·ln(N) — a fixed, known number funded upfront as the market subsidy. Capped risk, no liquidations, no open-ended exposure.
📡
Raw distribution feed
Real-time access to every submitted distribution before aggregation — the richest probability signal available anywhere, and yours from day one.
See the live reference bot →
Founding MM access · passcode required

Shape the outcome.

Trade live on testnet →
Live on Base Sepolia · Logarithmic scoring · Non-custodial
Trading with size? →