Curated, high-liquidity markets only. Finance, sports, culture — all with deep AMM liquidity so your trade always executes.
BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
02
Draw your distribution
Open the distribution editor. Paint freehand, place a bell curve, or start from a Bullish/Neutral/Bearish preset. Sculpt your belief into the exact shape that reflects what you think will happen.
03
See your edge
Your distribution overlaid on the crowd's in real time. The divergence — measured in KL bits — is your edge. The more precisely you differ from consensus and are right, the more you earn.
04
Set leverage (optional)
Up to 5× on your position. Tighter distributions + higher leverage = higher max payout. Rewards skill, not just risk.
05
Trade, track, share
Your position settles onchain on Base. When the market resolves, earnings hit your wallet. Share your distribution card — your call, your edge, your proof.
The math behind it
VibeKast uses a constant L2 norm AMM over square-integrable function space. The scoring rule is logarithmic — your dominant strategy is always to submit your true belief. In the Normal case (mean + variance), the mechanism closes cleanly and is gas-efficient on Base.