Season Zero · Base Sepolia

Trade the shape, not the direction.

Four weeks. One flagship market — BTC's Sunday close, every week, same time. You sculpt a 26-bucket probability distribution, carry it through settlement, and get a real calibration score. The first names in the dataset are the founding names.

Scored on CRPS skill
against the baseline — never volume
Sculpt the whole curve
26 buckets, not a yes/no bet
Testnet, unaudited
independent audit planned before mainnet
Limited seats

Shape Trader

You already think in distributions. This is the first venue that lets you trade them directly.

  • Trade 3 of 4 weekly markets, through settlement and redemption
  • Completion grant + calibration prize
  • A permanent, public calibration record from Season Zero
  • First look at mainnet — and first refusal on a subsidized MM seat
No volume rewards. No points. Calibration and contribution only.
Limited seats

Market Maker

Quote against a passive LMSR with a known cost function and a bounded subsidy that is explicitly the budget for your edge.

  • Run our open-source viem bot — or bring your own — for one full week
  • Integration grant, plus a bounty for a substantive technical review
  • Performance pool on uptime, depth, and inventory discipline
  • Priority on mainnet liquidity terms
No volume rewards. No points. Calibration and contribution only.

Seats are limited and reviewed by hand. We're optimizing for people who will actually show up for four Sundays — not for reach. If that's you, we'd like to hear it.